They were wrong two years ago . . .

The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active
Atlantic 
hurricane season. They were wrong last year when the predicated a well
above 
average hurricane season. And now these dummies are again predicting an 
above average activity hurricane season.

Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable
poor 
guesses? What possible good do these faulty forecasts do anybody? It's
like 
the boy who cried "WOLF" fairy tale. If anything such impotent forecasts 
have the opposite of the intended effect. We brush them aside. We think, 
"Please get real!".

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071207/BREAKINGNEWS/71207010/1086/rss07

Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives in 
Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious he 
would move to Texas, Louisiana or Florida so he'd be a little more
familiar 
with his line of work. His position is untenable. He's sort of like an 
ex-pearl diver now living in Kathmandu and trying to guess the pearl
harvest 
in Hawaii. It's pathetic! It demonstrates the folly of relying too much on

computers and so-called technology while isolating one's self from the 
actual climate. Colorado State University?  I guess that's in Fort
Collins? 
Isn't the altitude there about a mile? Maybe Dr. Gray is suffering from 
oxygen deficiency. Seems to me people who live at altitude in Colorado are

less intelligent than those who live at sea level. They often suffer from
a 
host of maladies including high altitude cerebral edema. 
http://www.ismmed.org/np_altitude_tutorial.htm

I think Dr. Gray is a bad example for everybody who has the misfortune of 
taking him seriously. It takes the willing suspension of belief to even 
listen to him. I will continue to do the usual hurricane preparation no 
matter the forecast. What I do has served me successfully for 20 years and

all my boats have come through without a scratch. But, of course, my main 
course is to put to sea and evade. It's always better to avoid a hurricane

than to be stuck in its projected path with no good options. I've found
that 
my Swan 68 can easily outrun the typical Atlantic basin hurricane. But,
the 
safest course is simply sail to the southern hemisphere in the off season 
and remain there until the beginning of their season and then sail back to

the northern hemisphere where the season is ending.

Wilbur Hubbard