On Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:56:36 -0700 (PDT), Bob <freya2go@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>On Apr 20, 12:38 pm, "Wilbur Hubbard" <wilburhubb...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>wrote:
>> The "experts" wrong two years ago when they predicted a very active
Atlantic
>> hurricane season.
>
>> Why should we sailors put any store in forecasts that are demonstrable
poor
>> guesses?
>
>> Dr. William Gray is out of touch with reality. For one thing he lives
in
>> Colorado - which has never experienced a hurricane. If he were serious
he
>> would move to
>> Wilbur Hubbard
>
>My dearest Willbur.
>
>Me thinks your off base here. two things:
>1) living in colorado has nothing to do with a persons meterological
>credentials. I live in the PNW and instruct nearly 100 state
>university studnts each term. Humm now how do I do that? with my ass
>on a boat? In fact I could even live in CO (god forbid) and still
>teach my 100 students, or FL for that matter.
>
>2) If you belived in Global Weather Change the reason for getting a
>prediction wrong on a GLOBAL scale is obvious for such an inlightened
>person as your self. Its all statistics and modeling. Then throw in an
>event that is not in the data base (you may call it history) and it
>screws up the prediction.
>
>On a last note, both YOU and SKip seem to have a real hard on for
>NOAA weather. I on the other hand, an intellegent person having
>compleed sucessfully several graduate level statistis courses have
>the uderstanding to use the data from the Ocean Prediction Center with
>excellent results.
>
>Ya might try the most im****tant weather predection instrument you
>have.....................................
>
>THE WINDOW......... now just take a good look !
>
>Bob ;)
Dr. Gray has long been under attack from his own colleagues. They have no
confidence in him. In my home sailing grounds, NOAA weather re****ting
accuracy
is consistently awful. TV weather around here is also bad, but it's far
more
reliable than NOAA. Perhaps some areas are easier to predict?
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